What does the term "analog" refer to in weather forecasting?

The term "analog" in weather forecasting refers to using past weather patterns or cases that resemble current conditions to make predictions. This approach relies on the idea that if certain weather conditions in the past led to specific outcomes, then similar present conditions could yield comparable results. By analyzing historical data, meteorologists can identify patterns and trends that have previously occurred under similar circumstances, which can provide valuable insights into upcoming weather events. This method is especially useful when numerical weather prediction models might not capture the nuances of highly variable atmospheric phenomena.