What does persistence forecasting predict?

Persistence forecasting is a method that assumes that the current weather conditions will continue into the near future. This approach relies on the principle that weather patterns tend to exhibit short-term stability, making it a practical tool for short-term weather predictions. The rationale behind this method is that if the weather is currently clear, rainy, hot, or cold, it is likely to remain that way shortly after the observation.

In contrast, other options suggest significant changes in weather patterns or a complete shift, which persistence forecasting does not predict. It inherently implies continuity rather than abrupt changes. So, by predicting that future weather will be similar to current weather, persistence forecasting effectively captures the typical behavior of weather systems over short time frames.